NZD/USD is heavy under 0.5700 and trading close to the level implied by 2-year NZ-US bond yield spreads. New Zealand January ANZ business outlook survey was disappointing but still extremely high, BBH FX analysts report.

RBNZ/Fed policy trend remains drag for NZD/USD

“Business confidence dipped 8 points to a five-month low at 54.4 and the expected own activity fell 4 points high to a four-month low at 45.8. Reported past activity, which has the best correlation to GDP, improved slightly to 0.2 vs. 0 in December suggesting a modest recovery in economic activity is underway.” 

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% in February and the policy rate to bottom around 3.00% over the next 12 months. RBNZ/Fed policy trend remains drag for NZD/USD.”